Desk live · Updated 14:22 ET

Degen Intel

A research and tracking terminal for high-volume prediction markets. Live odds, smart-money flows, cross-venue spreads, and institutional forecasts - read before you take a position.

Top position of the day

LAX daily high stays under 80°F

Today's weather models strongly point to a high in the upper 70s, while the market is still pricing it as a long shot.

TargetUnder 80°F at LAX
ConfidenceHigh
ActionBuy Yes near 31c
Kalshi · LAX daily temperatureBoard: 31% · our read: 49%
24h Notional$16.6Macross tracked markets
Open Interest$64.2Mlive capital committed
Trades / 24h16,135executions booked
Tracked Markets8Polymarket + Kalshi

Live Market Focus

High-volume forecast markets across politics, finance, tech, and culture.

FinanceKalshi

Fed cuts the policy rate at the September meeting

71% YES
+4 ptsover the last 24 hours
24h vol$2.41M
Open int$9.18M
ClosesSep 17
FinancePolymarket

Bitcoin trades above $100k before October 1

38% YES
-6 ptsover the last 24 hours
24h vol$5.12M
Open int$14.9M
ClosesOct 1
PoliticsPolymarket

Republicans hold the House after the midterms

54% YES
+2 ptsover the last 24 hours
24h vol$3.87M
Open int$22.3M
ClosesNov 4
TechKalshi

A new frontier model ships from a top lab this quarter

82% YES
+1 ptsover the last 24 hours
24h vol$980k
Open int$3.24M
ClosesSep 30
FinanceKalshi

S&P 500 prints a new all-time high in August

63% YES
+3 ptsover the last 24 hours
24h vol$1.65M
Open int$6.01M
ClosesAug 31
CulturePolymarket

The festival front-runner wins Best Picture

29% YES
+5 ptsover the last 24 hours
24h vol$640k
Open int$2.11M
ClosesMar 2
FinancePolymarket

Spot Ether funds net positive flows for the month

66% YES
-2 ptsover the last 24 hours
24h vol$1.22M
Open int$4.48M
ClosesAug 31
PoliticsKalshi

New chip export controls announced before year end

47% YES
+6 ptsover the last 24 hours
24h vol$720k
Open int$1.96M
ClosesDec 31

Smart Money Monitor

Researched flow of the highest-performing accounts and their open positions.

0xMercury· Polymarket

Macro rates and rotation, holds to resolution

Hit rate67%
90d realized+$4.82M
YES$410kFed cuts in September@68 · 26m ago
TheoVega· Polymarket

Crypto momentum, scales out in thirds

Hit rate61%
90d realized+$3.11M
NO$295kBitcoin above $100k by Oct 1@41 · 1h ago
QuietCarry· Kalshi

Low-variance event arbitrage, market-neutral

Hit rate72%
90d realized+$2.64M
YES$180kS&P new high in August@60 · 2h ago
0xPraxis· Polymarket

Political base-rate fader, contrarian on hype

Hit rate58%
90d realized+$1.95M
NO$340kRepublicans hold the House@56 · 3h ago
LindyFund· Kalshi

Tech catalysts, news-driven entries

Hit rate64%
90d realized+$1.41M
YES$120kFrontier model ships this quarter@79 · 5h ago

Odds Discrepancy Matrix

Standing spreads between Polymarket and Kalshi, net of a 1.5pt friction allowance.

MarketPolymarketKalshiNet edgeRouting
Fed cuts the policy rate in September
Thin and likely to close on settlement-rule parity. Friction eats most of it.
73710.5 ptsSell Polymarket YES / buy Kalshi YES
Bitcoin above $100k by October 1
Persistent gap from differing reference indices. Real edge if resolution sources reconcile.
38333.5 ptsBuy Polymarket NO / buy Kalshi YES, sized to delta
Republicans hold the House
Cross-venue framing differs on tie-break seats. Confirm contract wording before sizing.
54502.5 ptsSell Polymarket YES / buy Kalshi YES
S&P 500 new all-time high in August
Marginal after fees. Watch the close-window definition mismatch.
60631.5 ptsBuy Polymarket YES / sell Kalshi YES
Spot Ether funds net positive for the month
Widest standing spread on the board. Flow is one-sided on Polymarket; mean-reversion candidate.
66604.5 ptsSell Polymarket YES / buy Kalshi YES

Climate Position Monitor

Daily Kalshi temperature and rainfall brackets for LAX, scanned against a high-resolution model consensus (GFS, Euro, NOAA). Edge flags where the board underprices a tier the models favor.

Model cycle 12z · scanned 14:18 ETGFSEuroNOAA
Sharpest mispricing

LAX · Los Angeles Intl · 78-79°F (temperature)

Board prices 31% · consensus models read 46%.

Model edge+15
TemperatureKalshi

Daily high temperature bracket at LAX

LAX · Los Angeles Intl · Settles on the official daily high, 23:59 PT

BracketBoard / ModelsEdge
74-75°F
9%6%
-3
76-77°F
27%20%
-7
78-79°FUnderpriced
31%46%
+15
80-81°F
22%21%
-1
82°F+
11%6%
-5
LegendBoard oddsModel consensus
RainfallKalshi

24h accumulated rainfall bracket at LAX

LAX · Los Angeles Intl · Settles on the official 24h precip total, 23:59 PT

BracketBoard / ModelsEdge
Trace - 0.09 in
58%51%
-7
0.10 - 0.24 inUnderpriced
18%30%
+12
0.25 - 0.49 in
14%12%
-2
0.50 in+
10%6%
-4
LegendBoard oddsModel consensus

Perfect Research Insights

Institutional-grade reasoning on the top active markets. Each call carries a fair value, a horizon, and the drivers behind it.

FinanceHigh conviction

Fed cuts the policy rate at the September meeting

Fair value sits above the board. A cut is more likely than 71 reflects.

Board71
Fair value80
Mispricing+9 pts cheap
Read the full thesis →
FinanceMedium conviction

Bitcoin trades above $100k before October 1

The board is rich. 38 overstates a clean break of round-number resistance on this timeline.

Board38
Fair value28
Mispricing-10 pts rich
Read the full thesis →
PoliticsMedium conviction

Republicans hold the House after the midterms

Close to fair. The toss-up framing is right; edge is in the structure, not the level.

Board54
Fair value53
Mispricing-1 pts rich
Read the full thesis →
FinanceHigh conviction

Spot Ether funds net positive flows for the month

Underpriced. Base rates and the redemption cliff both favor a positive monthly print.

Board66
Fair value74
Mispricing+8 pts cheap
Read the full thesis →